🧬 Great Filter Location Probability Simulator

Two-Layer Model: Survival Probabilities → Filter Location Probabilities
Key Question: Where is the Great Filter most likely located?

Setup Parameters

Number of Evolutionary Steps: Prior Survival Distribution: Base Survival Probability: 10%

New Evidence

Evidence at Step: Life Status: Update Strength (Prior & Current Steps): 2.0x

Extinct Life Additional Controls

Update Strength (Next Step): 2.0x

This reduces survival probability for the step after extinction evidence.

Humanity's Position

Humanity is currently at step:

This affects the "behind us vs ahead of us" calculation for existential risk assessment.

Initialize model to see risk assessment

Detailed Analysis

Step	Name	Survival Prob	Filter Location Prob	Cumulative Reach Prob	Difficulty Factor